Happy Monday,
It’s Zach here with another weekly investing update for you!
My largest position of 2026 is Nvidia ($NVDA). I’ve added $111,000 across my accounts this year after holding zero shares going into 2026.
While I typically follow a dividend growth investing strategy, Nvidia's explosive free cash flow generation made it an irresistible addition, even to my dividend portfolio.
Before Nvidia reports earnings this week, here is the breakdown of why I'm so heavy on the stock, the underlying business metrics, and why I believe it could become the world's first $10 trillion company.
Today’s Topics:
Why I Own $111,070 of Nvidia Stock (Watch Here)
Walmart Stock Analysis (Watch Here)
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The Key Story
Why I Own $111,070 of Nvidia Stock
📊 Research NVDA: DividendData.com/stocks/nvda
Watch Full Analysis Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQO70i8Hxgw
1. Cash Flow & Dividend Growth
Free Cash Flow: Nvidia generated $48.5B in FCF last quarter alone (up 85% YoY), bringing trailing 12-month FCF to $119B.
Dividend Increase: Raised its payout by 2,400% ($1.00/share forward payout). While the current yield is low (0.46%), massive cash generation gives it plenty of room for future growth.
Capital Return: Returned $48.4B to shareholders over the past 12 months, primarily through $47B in share buybacks.
2. Data Center Dominance
Data center infrastructure accounts for 90% of overall revenue.
Nvidia sells complete, energy-efficient system platforms at 75% gross margins.
Triple-Pillar Thesis: AI token demand keeps expanding, token usage remains productive for buyers, and data center buildouts remain fully funded.
3. Future Catalysts & Demand Signals
SpaceX Exclusivity: SpaceX/xAI is going exclusive with Nvidia, targeting 5–10 GW of online compute in 2027.
Broadening Customer Base: Spend is expanding beyond cloud hyperscalers to sovereign nations (Japan, Saudi Arabia), enterprise labs (Dell, Eli Lilly), and NeoClouds (CoreWeave).
Revenue Runway: Management sees line of sight to $1 Trillion in cumulative revenue across 2026–2027.
4. Valuation & Growth Projections
Low Relative PE: Trades at a 24.4 forward PE ($9 EPS target for FY2027), putting its valuation in the 6th percentile of its 5-year historic range.
Price Targets: If NVDA simply maintains its current forward PE ratio on projected FY2028 EPS ($12.78), the stock would reach $311.74/share (~41.8% upside in one year). By FY2029 EPS estimates, that reaches $373/share (70% upside in two years).
5. My Personal Strategy & Bear Case
Holding Strategy: Built a $188.22 average cost basis. It makes up 100% of my Roth IRA (bought around $182/share) for tax-free gains, alongside a $33k position in my taxable dividend portfolio.
When I Would Sell: If we shift from a compute shortage to a compute glut, if cloud provider capex guidance drops, or if token demand halts.
WMT Stock Analysis
Walmart's Worst Day in 4 Years. Nvidia Is Still Cheaper.
📊 Research WMT: DividendData.com/stocks/wmt
▶️ Watch Full Video Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDfydZrrn58
Walmart ($WMT) recently suffered its worst single-day loss in four years, dropping 9.15% following its latest earnings report. Yet, even after falling 22% from its all-time high, the stock still looks expensive—especially when compared to high-flying tech giants like Nvidia.
Here is a breakdown of what happened, why Walmart stock got so expensive, and where it makes sense to buy.
1. The Sell-Off vs. Valuation
The Drop: Walmart dropped 9.15% in a single day after reporting Q2 comparable sales growth of 2.6% (ex-fuel), its slowest pace since 2020 and below Wall Street's 3.5%–3.8% expectations.
High Multiples: Priced for perfection, Walmart was trading at a forward P/E as high as 46x earlier this year. Even after the drop, it sits at a 35.9x forward P/E (68th percentile of its 5-year range).
Historical Norms: Over the past 10 years, Walmart’s median forward P/E was 22.9x, and its median dividend yield was 2.05% (currently sitting at a low 0.95%).
The Nvidia Comparison: By contrast, Nvidia ($NVDA) trades at a forward P/E of just 24.1x while growing earnings at 83% YoY. Walmart has a 5-year EPS CAGR of 6.5%.
2. Why Walmart Re-Rated Higher Walmart isn't just a traditional brick-and-mortar store anymore; the market has re-rated its multiple closer to high-margin subscription and ad businesses:
Global Advertising: Up 38% YoY. Digital and in-store ads are high-margin revenue streams leveraging their 150 million weekly shoppers. Estimates suggest ads account for nearly 1/3 of Walmart's operating income.
E-Commerce Growth: E-commerce sales grew 23% YoY, solidifying Walmart as the clear #2 behind Amazon.
Walmart Plus Memberships: Membership fee revenue grew 17% YoY. While it isn't pure profit like a Costco membership (due to streaming and delivery perks), it adds predictable, recurring subscription revenue.
3. Price Projections & Buying Strategy
Return Expectations: If Walmart keeps its high 35.9x multiple through FY2031 (projected EPS of $4.23), the stock reaches $151.98 (~8.9% annualized return).
Multiple Compression: If the multiple reverts toward its 10-year median of 22.9x, the stock price would decline ~6.6% total by 2031 despite earnings growth.
Intrinsic Value & Fair Value: Our Value Graph tool puts fair value at $72.63 based on 5-year median multiples. A standard DCF model outputs an intrinsic value of $87.65.
My Plan: Walmart is one of the best businesses in the world, but paying tech-level multiples for single-digit top-line growth creates downside risk. I would only consider buying $WMT at a 20x to 25x forward P/E range.
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– Zach
Founder, Dividend Data
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Disclaimer: Dividend Dividend (Dividend Data LLC) is not a professional financial service. All materials released from Dividend Data (Dividend Data LLC) are for educational and entertainment purposes. Dividend Data (Dividend Data LLC) is not a replacement for a professional's opinion. Contributors to the Dividend Data (Dividend Data LLC) might have equities mentioned in the newsletter